How to Forecast Revenues for a Company Launch

One of the first things a MBA major learns is the importance of a well-crafted business plan. A key component of that plan is forecasting revenues. This is essential if you're going to be looking for investors in advance of a company launch. Those investors will want to know how and when their money will be coming back to them. Here are the steps to follow to forecast revenues for a company launch:

Step 1: Determine Your Operating Costs

What will it cost to keep your business open? Factor in everything from rent, insurance, salaries, office supplies, marketing, manufacturing (if applicable) and miscellaneous expenses. Those will be your operating costs. You'll then have a profit margin on every item you sell. That accumulated margin needs to be deducted from those operating costs.

Step 2: Create a Customer Profile

Who are you selling to? By creating a customer profile you'll be able to anticipate shifting trends in your business. You'll also know where to target your marketing campaigns. The majority of laundry detergent is sold to the moms who do the shopping and the advertising reflects that. There is a business adage that goes, "20% of your customers account for 80% of your sales." That's why you really have to understand who you're selling to in order to make an accurate forecast. You'll be depending on those profiles to be accurate.

Step 3: Determine the Reach of Your Campaign

If you're opening a neighborhood storefront then you should know what to expect in terms of foot traffic or customers traveling to your store. However, with an online business your reach could truly be global. How will you know how far that reach can go in order to make an accurate prediction? This might come down to a matter of marketing penetration. For instance, if you're going to advertise on Facebook then you'll be able to know what type of click through rate to expect. You can build a forecast utilizing that information.

Step 4: Size Up the Competitive Landscape

Chances are that whatever business you're starting up, somebody has already beaten you to the punch. That's a good thing because you can learn a lot by studying your competition. If you can find out what type of sales they achieved you should be able to make comparable forecasts.

Step 5: Add it Up

Now that you have all of those numbers you're ready to make a forecast. The best approach is to provide conservative and logical forecasts backed by data. Being conservative means erring on the side of caution and embracing the "worst case scenario" when it comes to sales.   

What Should Go in My Business Plan?

A good business plan is more than merely a document. It is a carefully designed outline of your business, a veritable blueprint that accurately describes your business and all its components. Business plans differ in length and detail, depending on the nature of the business. However, there are certain basic elements that a good business plan should contain.

Begin with the Executive Summary. Many consider this to be the most important section of the plan. It provides an overview of the key points of the business. It should contain highlights from all sections of the plan and should be written in an interesting, concise manner, not to exceed two pages. Often, the reader will only read this section. If it doesn't grab the reader's attention, they may not go further.

Follow this with a detailed description of the business opportunity. In simple language, describe what this business will do and why it should succeed. Why are you the right person for this business? What is your vision?

You have done your market research. Put the results into a detailed marketing plan. This section of the plan should demonstrate how you plan to enter the market. How do you plan to promote your business? What are your pricing and sales strategies? How large is your potential customer base and how do you identify them?

Build an organizational chart. Describe the key members of your team and what will be their roles. Include the qualifications of the leading managers, including you. This section should clearly convince the reader that this business will have the team to make it happen.

Follow the organizational chart with a description of the operational requirements. How will the business operate? What are the physical requirements? What types of technology will be employed in the daily operations?

Now comes the number crunching. The financial section should contain a detailed outline of your financial forecast for the first three to five years. The first year should be far more detailed. An investor should see that you truly understand the business. This section should contain cash flow statements, profit and loss forecasts, and sales projections.

Remember that the language of a business plan should be directed to an outsider. Make the plan realistic and believable. Invest your time in preparation as this document may be the key to launching your business.

More help on setting up a business plan

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